KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

66%

55%

22%

10%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

WN2NO 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +56.85u · WN2 −56.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	41.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	39.0%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	48.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	77.5%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	89.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	36.7%	54.0%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	62.4%	50.0%	21.4%	—	26.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	31.0%	74.0%	78.0%	—	21.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	33.0%	29.6%	84.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	52.4%	41.3%	28.8%	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	53.3%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	32.2%	41.7%	27.9%	—	12.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	31.9%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	48.2%	50.0%	18.4%	—	12.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	35.1%	42.9%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	50.9%	40.0%	23.0%	—	4.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	45.3%	37.0%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	51.0%	49.0%	21.0%	—	4.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	48.0%	55.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	34.9%	56.1%	15.1%	—	2.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	43.7%	57.4%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	51.1%	65.9%	2.4%	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	55.6%	57.8%	1.8%	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	55.8%	60.4%	1.3%	41.9%	1.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	61.9%	50.0%	1.6%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	64.6%	51.2%	1.6%	65.8%	2.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	67.5%	55.1%	0.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	64.4%	58.0%	0.6%	36.8%	1.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	65.0%	54.2%	0.9%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	58.6%	54.3%	0.5%	52.9%	1.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.4%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	86.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	84.3°F	6.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	55%	82.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	80.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	77.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	75.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗