KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.8¢Risks 11.75u

WN2NO 88.2¢Risks 88.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +88.25u · WN2 −88.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T07:51:09+00:00	0.3%	15.4%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	0.3%	15.4%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	0.3%	15.4%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	0.3%	15.4%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	0.3%	15.4%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T11:37:41+00:00	0.3%	15.4%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	0.3%	23.1%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	0.3%	23.1%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	0.1%	23.1%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	0.1%	23.1%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T15:27:28+00:00	0.1%	23.1%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	0.1%	23.1%	5.9%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	0.1%	23.1%	2.6%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	0.1%	23.1%	2.6%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	0.1%	23.1%	2.6%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	0.1%	23.1%	2.6%	1.5%	28.4%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	1.9%	23.1%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	1.9%	23.1%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	1.9%	23.1%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	1.9%	23.1%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	1.9%	23.6%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	1.9%	23.6%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	1.9%	23.6%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	1.9%	23.6%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T04:17:06+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	2.6%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	0.2%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	0.2%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	0.2%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	0.2%	29.6%	42.7%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	1.2%	22.3%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	1.2%	22.3%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	1.2%	22.2%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	1.2%	22.2%	0.2%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	1.2%	22.2%	0.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	1.2%	22.2%	0.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	1.2%	22.2%	0.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	0.1%	29.6%	16.3%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	0.1%	29.6%	16.3%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	0.1%	29.6%	16.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	0.1%	29.6%	16.3%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	0.1%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	0.2%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	0.2%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	0.2%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T03:44:49+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.2%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.1%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.1%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	1.1%	22.2%	0.1%	6.0%	16.3%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	0.7%	25.8%	0.2%	4.1%	16.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	0.7%	25.8%	0.2%	4.1%	16.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	0.7%	25.8%	0.2%	4.1%	16.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	0.9%	25.8%	0.2%	4.1%	16.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	0.9%	25.8%	0.2%	4.2%	16.5%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	0.9%	25.8%	0.2%	4.2%	16.5%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	0.9%	25.8%	0.2%	4.2%	16.5%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	0.9%	25.8%	0.2%	4.2%	16.5%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	0.9%	25.8%	0.1%	4.2%	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	0.9%	25.8%	0.1%	4.2%	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	0.9%	25.8%	0.1%	4.2%	16.5%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	0.8%	25.8%	0.1%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	0.8%	25.8%	0.1%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	0.8%	25.8%	0.1%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	0.8%	25.8%	0.1%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	0.8%	25.8%	0.1%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	0.8%	23.2%	0.3%	1.4%	9.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	23%	86.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	81.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	77.0°F	9.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	76.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	77.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	78.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗