KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.8¢Risks 11.75u

WN2NO 88.2¢Risks 88.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +88.25u · WN2 −88.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	7.3%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	46.8%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.5%	10.5%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	13.7%	7.9%	1.4%	—	2.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.5%	20.4%	24.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	1.9%	30.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.2%	3.4%	1.5%	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.0%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	3.0%	1.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.6%	3.9%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	1.8%	0.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.2%	1.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.7%	2.4%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.0%	3.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	2.8%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	2.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	3.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	1.9%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	0.7%	0.0%	1.8%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	23%	86.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	81.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	77.0°F	9.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	76.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	77.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	78.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗