KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

50%

33%

30%

27%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.9¢Risks 48.85u

WN2NO 51.2¢Risks 51.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.15u · WN2 −51.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	25.4%	88.1%	24.7%	66.5%	44.7%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	25.4%	88.1%	24.7%	66.5%	44.7%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	25.4%	88.1%	24.7%	66.5%	44.7%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	25.4%	88.1%	27.6%	66.5%	44.7%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	25.4%	88.1%	27.6%	66.5%	44.7%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	25.4%	88.1%	27.6%	66.5%	44.7%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	40.3%	88.1%	27.6%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	40.3%	88.1%	27.6%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	40.3%	88.1%	27.6%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	40.3%	88.1%	27.6%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	40.3%	88.1%	27.6%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	40.3%	82.7%	49.1%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	40.3%	82.7%	49.1%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	40.3%	82.7%	49.1%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	65.4%	82.7%	49.1%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	65.4%	82.7%	49.1%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	65.4%	82.7%	49.1%	66.0%	41.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:45+00:00	37.2%	85.0%	46.1%	35.1%	79.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	37.2%	85.0%	42.2%	35.1%	79.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	37.2%	85.0%	42.2%	35.1%	79.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	37.2%	85.0%	42.2%	35.1%	79.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	37.2%	85.0%	42.2%	35.1%	79.3%
2026-10-13T08:03:14+00:00	29.4%	85.0%	42.2%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	29.4%	85.0%	42.2%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	29.4%	85.0%	42.2%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	29.4%	85.0%	42.2%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	29.4%	66.7%	25.1%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	29.4%	66.7%	25.1%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	29.4%	66.7%	25.1%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	29.4%	66.7%	25.1%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	29.3%	66.5%	25.1%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	29.3%	66.1%	25.1%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	29.3%	66.1%	25.1%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	29.3%	66.1%	25.1%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	29.3%	66.1%	25.9%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	29.3%	66.1%	25.9%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	29.3%	66.1%	25.9%	37.4%	47.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	33.2%	66.1%	25.9%	37.4%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	33.2%	66.1%	25.9%	37.4%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	33.2%	66.1%	25.9%	37.4%	50.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	33.2%	66.1%	25.9%	37.4%	50.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	33.2%	66.1%	25.9%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	33.2%	70.9%	26.8%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	33.2%	70.9%	26.8%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	33.2%	70.9%	26.8%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	33.2%	70.9%	26.8%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	33.2%	70.9%	26.8%	29.5%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	67.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	65.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	63.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	62.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗