KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

50%

33%

30%

27%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.9¢Risks 48.85u

WN2NO 51.2¢Risks 51.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.15u · WN2 −51.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	98.0%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	99.2%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	37.6%	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	55.2%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	96.6%	80.6%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	15.3%	40.3%	74.3%	—	66.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	17.9%	84.8%	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	16.9%	6.3%	56.8%	—	34.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	25.5%	30.1%	15.4%	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	9.5%	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	67.8%	31.5%	23.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	31.1%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	33.8%	36.3%	7.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	40.2%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	35.6%	55.5%	4.6%	—	10.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	26.9%	55.7%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	19.7%	51.0%	6.8%	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	21.9%	40.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	17.0%	29.4%	6.1%	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	17.6%	18.3%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	24.7%	13.1%	0.7%	0.4%	4.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	11.2%	14.8%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	11.0%	12.7%	1.1%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	6.6%	14.5%	1.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	7.5%	10.0%	1.4%	2.3%	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.7%	7.7%	1.2%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	6.1%	9.5%	1.0%	3.2%	2.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	6.7%	8.6%	1.3%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	5.5%	10.2%	1.3%	5.9%	1.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.9%	11.2%	2.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	13.4%	1.1%	9.6%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	10.7%	4.1%	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	67.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	65.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	63.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	62.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗