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KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
WN2
80%
ICON
74%
AIFS
72%
HRES
66%
Consensus
75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 75.2¢Risks 37.58u
VS
HRESNO 24.8¢Risks 12.42u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.42u · HRES −12.42u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00AIFS Single: 69.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00AIFS Single: 69.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00AIFS Single: 69.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 69.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00AIFS Single: 69.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00AIFS Single: 69.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00AIFS Single: 69.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:0010-15 15:3310-15 21:3610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:0084.2%81.3%79.7%68.1%79.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:0084.2%81.3%79.7%68.1%79.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:0084.2%81.3%85.7%68.1%79.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:0084.2%81.3%85.7%68.1%79.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:0084.2%81.3%85.7%68.1%79.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:0084.2%81.3%85.7%68.1%79.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:0069.6%81.3%85.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:0069.6%81.3%85.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:0069.6%81.3%85.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:0069.6%81.3%85.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:0069.6%83.8%79.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:0069.6%83.8%79.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:0069.6%83.8%79.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:0072.0%83.8%79.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:0072.0%83.8%79.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:0072.0%83.8%79.7%66.5%73.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:0072.0%83.8%79.7%66.5%73.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%69.5°F4.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%68.3°F3.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
ICON74%68.0°F4.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single72%68.0°F4.3°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS HRES66%67.4°F4.5°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending
National Blend55%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗