KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

80%

74%

72%

66%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.2¢Risks 37.58u

HRESNO 24.8¢Risks 12.42u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.42u · HRES −12.42u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	6.7%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	61.8%	45.1%	28.6%	—	66.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	83.5%	80.1%	72.8%	—	77.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	94.2%	84.5%	79.5%	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	87.3%	90.3%	73.2%	—	73.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	8.5%	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	87.5%	91.0%	61.5%	—	66.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	73.3%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	81.6%	87.8%	37.1%	—	42.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	81.0%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	67.0%	83.4%	40.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	67.4%	81.0%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	72.9%	77.5%	33.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	65.6%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	67.9%	81.7%	25.1%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	66.5%	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	62.9%	69.9%	35.1%	—	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	64.3%	64.3%	0.0%	—	56.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	65.9%	75.8%	30.0%	—	62.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	64.1%	76.6%	34.7%	—	58.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	58.7%	80.9%	27.6%	62.3%	53.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	60.2%	88.5%	23.8%	—	51.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	56.7%	91.1%	35.6%	64.4%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	67.5%	92.9%	26.5%	—	52.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	78.8%	96.3%	45.7%	76.6%	61.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	82.8%	94.4%	33.8%	—	53.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	81.9%	95.2%	31.7%	79.7%	53.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	86.9%	96.6%	51.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	68.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	68.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	68.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	67.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗