KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

63%

47%

43%

21%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.60u

ICONNO 49.4¢Risks 49.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.40u · ICON −49.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	59.6%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	85.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	59.6%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	85.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	59.6%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	85.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	59.6%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	85.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	59.6%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	85.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	59.6%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	85.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	66.0%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	77.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	66.0%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	77.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	66.0%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	77.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	66.0%	86.4%	82.8%	69.8%	77.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	66.0%	86.4%	82.8%	41.3%	77.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	66.0%	57.9%	64.7%	41.3%	77.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	66.0%	57.9%	64.7%	41.3%	77.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	66.0%	57.9%	64.7%	41.3%	77.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	64.4%	57.9%	64.7%	41.3%	77.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	64.4%	57.8%	64.7%	41.3%	78.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:10+00:00	64.4%	57.7%	64.7%	41.3%	78.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	64.4%	57.7%	64.7%	41.3%	78.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	64.4%	57.7%	64.7%	41.3%	78.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	64.4%	57.7%	55.3%	41.3%	78.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	64.4%	57.7%	55.3%	41.3%	78.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	64.4%	57.7%	55.3%	41.3%	78.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	60.3%	57.7%	55.3%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	60.3%	57.7%	55.3%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	60.3%	57.7%	55.3%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	60.3%	57.7%	55.3%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	60.3%	57.7%	55.3%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	60.3%	60.9%	52.1%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	60.3%	60.9%	52.1%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	60.3%	60.9%	52.1%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	61.1%	60.9%	52.1%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	61.1%	60.9%	52.1%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	61.1%	60.9%	52.1%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	61.1%	60.9%	52.1%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	61.1%	60.9%	52.1%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	61.1%	60.9%	60.6%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	61.1%	60.9%	60.6%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	61.1%	60.9%	60.6%	41.3%	63.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	60.6%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	60.6%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	60.6%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	60.6%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	60.6%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	59.4%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	50.0%	64.4%	59.4%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	50.0%	64.4%	59.4%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	70.4%	64.3%	59.4%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	70.4%	64.3%	59.4%	50.9%	61.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	54.6%	68.9%	59.4%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	54.6%	68.9%	58.2%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	54.6%	68.9%	58.2%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	54.6%	68.9%	58.2%	49.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	52.0%	68.9%	58.2%	49.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	52.0%	68.9%	58.2%	49.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	52.0%	68.9%	58.2%	49.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	52.0%	68.9%	58.2%	49.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	52.0%	68.9%	58.2%	49.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	52.0%	80.6%	46.1%	49.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	52.0%	80.6%	46.1%	49.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	52.0%	80.6%	46.1%	49.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	46.1%	57.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	54.9%	80.4%	46.1%	57.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	46.1%	57.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	46.1%	57.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	46.1%	57.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	53.9%	57.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	53.9%	57.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	53.9%	57.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	53.9%	57.7%	40.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	53.9%	57.7%	40.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	53.9%	57.7%	40.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	53.9%	57.7%	40.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	54.9%	80.6%	53.9%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	54.9%	84.6%	52.6%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	54.9%	84.6%	52.6%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	54.9%	84.6%	52.6%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	58.8%	84.6%	52.6%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	58.8%	84.6%	52.6%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	58.8%	84.6%	52.6%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	58.8%	84.6%	52.6%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	58.8%	84.6%	52.6%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	58.8%	84.6%	56.4%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	58.8%	84.6%	56.4%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	58.8%	84.6%	56.4%	55.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00	62.9%	84.6%	56.4%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	62.9%	84.6%	56.4%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00	62.9%	84.6%	56.4%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	62.9%	84.6%	56.4%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	62.9%	84.6%	56.4%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	62.9%	84.7%	47.3%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	62.9%	84.7%	47.3%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	62.9%	84.7%	47.3%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	61.9%	84.7%	47.3%	50.0%	23.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	62.0%	84.1%	47.3%	50.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	62.0%	84.6%	47.3%	50.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	62.0%	84.6%	47.3%	50.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	62.0%	84.6%	45.9%	50.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	62.0%	84.6%	45.9%	50.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	62.0%	84.6%	45.9%	50.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	62.0%	84.6%	45.9%	50.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	61.0%	84.6%	45.9%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	61.0%	84.6%	45.9%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	61.0%	84.6%	45.9%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	61.0%	84.6%	45.9%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	61.0%	79.9%	43.2%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	61.0%	79.9%	43.2%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	61.0%	79.9%	43.2%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	61.0%	79.9%	43.2%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	62.9%	79.9%	43.2%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	62.9%	79.9%	43.2%	46.8%	21.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	62.9%	79.9%	43.2%	46.8%	21.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	70.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	68.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	67.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	67.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	21%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗