KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

63%

47%

43%

21%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.60u

ICONNO 49.4¢Risks 49.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.40u · ICON −49.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	3.5%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	47.9%	31.7%	18.0%	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	72.8%	68.3%	59.4%	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	88.2%	73.6%	67.0%	—	59.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	77.0%	81.6%	58.7%	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	3.8%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	76.8%	82.2%	45.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	57.6%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	67.8%	76.6%	22.1%	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	66.6%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	49.1%	69.5%	24.4%	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	49.0%	65.7%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	54.9%	60.6%	18.3%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	46.0%	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	47.9%	65.1%	11.8%	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	45.8%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	41.3%	48.9%	17.6%	—	32.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	42.2%	42.2%	0.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	43.0%	54.6%	13.4%	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	40.5%	54.8%	16.0%	—	34.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	34.2%	59.9%	11.2%	37.7%	29.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	34.9%	70.9%	8.7%	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	30.7%	74.9%	14.9%	38.1%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	40.3%	77.9%	9.2%	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	52.9%	85.4%	20.2%	50.0%	33.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	57.5%	79.8%	12.0%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	54.7%	80.8%	10.2%	51.6%	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	61.4%	84.0%	21.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	70.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	68.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	67.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	67.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	21%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗