KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

73%

59%

52%

49%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

EPSNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.90u · EPS −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:19+00:00	69.2%	44.2%	58.0%	69.3%	54.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	69.2%	44.2%	58.0%	69.3%	54.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	69.2%	44.2%	65.7%	69.3%	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	69.2%	44.2%	65.7%	69.3%	54.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	69.2%	44.2%	65.7%	69.3%	54.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	66.1%	44.2%	65.7%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	66.1%	44.2%	65.7%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	66.1%	44.2%	65.7%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	66.1%	44.2%	65.7%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	66.1%	44.2%	65.7%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	66.1%	44.2%	81.0%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	66.1%	56.3%	81.0%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	66.1%	56.3%	81.0%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	59.0%	56.3%	81.0%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	58.9%	56.3%	80.9%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T15:26:54+00:00	58.9%	56.3%	80.9%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	58.9%	53.8%	80.9%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	58.9%	53.8%	69.3%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	58.9%	53.8%	69.3%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	58.9%	53.8%	69.3%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	58.9%	53.8%	69.3%	61.4%	70.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	61.1%	53.8%	69.3%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	61.1%	53.8%	69.3%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	61.1%	53.8%	69.3%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	61.1%	53.8%	69.3%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	61.1%	53.8%	73.0%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	61.1%	53.8%	73.0%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	61.1%	53.8%	73.0%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	61.1%	49.2%	73.0%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	58.9%	49.2%	73.0%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	58.9%	49.2%	73.0%	51.8%	83.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	58.9%	49.2%	73.0%	51.8%	83.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	77.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	73.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	71.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	70.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	70.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗