KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

73%

59%

52%

49%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

EPSNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.90u · EPS −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	28.1%	15.8%	7.4%	—	32.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	52.2%	47.1%	37.8%	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	73.0%	52.3%	44.7%	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	55.6%	61.8%	35.2%	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	0.8%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	54.2%	61.5%	22.5%	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	32.6%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	42.2%	52.6%	7.7%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	40.2%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	23.7%	42.7%	8.3%	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	23.1%	37.9%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	27.1%	32.1%	5.1%	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	19.7%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	20.4%	34.9%	2.5%	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	18.3%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	14.9%	19.8%	4.0%	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	14.8%	14.8%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	14.7%	22.4%	2.4%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	12.6%	21.6%	2.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	8.9%	24.6%	1.6%	10.6%	7.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	8.7%	33.7%	1.0%	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	6.5%	36.8%	2.0%	9.5%	4.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	9.8%	39.0%	0.9%	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	15.4%	48.5%	2.7%	13.8%	6.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	17.2%	38.1%	1.0%	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	14.2%	37.6%	0.7%	12.5%	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.0%	40.2%	2.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	77.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	73.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	71.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	70.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	70.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗