KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

87%

83%

82%

79%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.1¢Risks 43.03u

AIFSNO 13.9¢Risks 6.97u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +6.97u · AIFS −6.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:10+00:00	85.7%	84.1%	87.9%	49.3%	85.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	85.7%	84.1%	87.9%	49.3%	85.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	85.7%	84.1%	87.9%	49.3%	85.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	85.7%	84.1%	84.1%	49.3%	85.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	85.7%	84.1%	84.1%	49.3%	85.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	85.7%	84.1%	84.1%	49.3%	85.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	79.5%	84.1%	84.1%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	79.5%	84.1%	84.1%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	79.5%	84.1%	84.1%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	79.5%	84.1%	84.1%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	79.5%	84.1%	84.1%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	79.5%	86.0%	81.6%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	79.5%	86.0%	81.6%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	79.5%	86.0%	81.6%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	82.3%	86.0%	81.6%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	82.3%	86.0%	81.6%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	82.3%	86.0%	81.6%	70.4%	83.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:00+00:00	89.7%	91.8%	84.6%	82.6%	88.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	89.7%	91.8%	84.6%	82.6%	88.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	89.7%	91.8%	88.7%	82.6%	88.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	89.7%	91.8%	88.7%	82.6%	88.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	89.7%	91.8%	88.7%	82.6%	88.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	89.7%	91.8%	88.7%	82.6%	88.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	86.2%	91.8%	88.7%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	86.2%	91.8%	88.7%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	86.2%	91.8%	88.7%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	86.2%	91.8%	88.7%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	86.2%	93.1%	82.0%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	86.2%	93.1%	82.0%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	86.2%	93.1%	82.0%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	79.0%	93.1%	82.0%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	79.0%	93.1%	82.0%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	79.0%	93.1%	82.0%	83.1%	87.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	79.0%	93.1%	82.0%	83.1%	87.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	73.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	87%	74.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗