KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

87%

83%

82%

79%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.1¢Risks 43.03u

AIFSNO 13.9¢Risks 6.97u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +6.97u · AIFS −6.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	69.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	37.2%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	18.9%	86.8%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	57.0%	31.1%	36.2%	—	65.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	81.6%	62.3%	59.4%	—	72.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	82.6%	55.3%	35.8%	—	69.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	76.4%	89.2%	61.0%	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	10.6%	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	74.2%	90.3%	57.5%	—	42.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	71.2%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	81.0%	74.5%	49.1%	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	82.2%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	81.0%	70.3%	34.7%	—	65.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	83.5%	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	78.2%	72.9%	27.9%	—	62.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	78.1%	68.3%	—	—	68.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	75.7%	74.9%	25.1%	—	70.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	79.5%	77.2%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	77.8%	79.4%	22.1%	0.1%	68.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	76.9%	85.2%	0.1%	—	68.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	77.6%	84.7%	33.1%	73.0%	69.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	83.3%	84.8%	32.5%	—	74.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	90.5%	86.3%	34.2%	0.1%	73.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	88.5%	86.5%	34.9%	—	70.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	88.0%	84.3%	34.3%	76.0%	66.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	88.2%	85.3%	33.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	90.5%	89.8%	34.5%	80.9%	76.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	92.0%	92.0%	28.5%	—	48.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	87.5%	86.6%	22.6%	75.0%	57.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	90.1%	92.1%	46.7%	—	80.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	73.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	87%	74.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗