KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

38%

36%

32%

17%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

EPSNO 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.90u · EPS −64.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	14.2%	23.7%	27.9%	64.7%	18.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	14.2%	33.5%	27.9%	64.7%	18.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	14.2%	33.5%	27.9%	64.7%	18.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	8.7%	33.5%	27.9%	64.7%	18.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	8.8%	33.5%	28.0%	64.7%	19.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:54+00:00	8.8%	33.5%	28.0%	64.7%	19.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	8.8%	31.9%	28.0%	64.7%	19.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	8.8%	31.9%	24.7%	64.7%	19.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	8.8%	31.9%	24.7%	64.7%	19.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	8.8%	31.9%	24.7%	64.7%	19.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	8.8%	31.9%	24.7%	64.7%	19.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	11.7%	31.9%	24.7%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	11.7%	31.9%	24.7%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	11.7%	31.9%	24.7%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	11.7%	31.9%	24.7%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	11.7%	31.9%	22.2%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	11.7%	31.9%	22.2%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	11.7%	31.9%	22.2%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	11.7%	28.8%	22.2%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	26.7%	28.8%	22.2%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	26.7%	28.8%	22.2%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	26.7%	28.8%	22.2%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:46+00:00	26.7%	28.8%	22.2%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	26.7%	28.8%	39.7%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	26.7%	28.8%	39.7%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	26.7%	28.8%	39.7%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	26.7%	28.8%	39.7%	34.7%	40.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:15+00:00	41.8%	28.8%	39.7%	43.3%	52.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	41.8%	28.8%	39.7%	43.3%	52.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	41.8%	28.8%	39.7%	43.3%	52.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	41.8%	28.8%	39.7%	43.3%	52.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	41.8%	15.5%	33.9%	43.3%	52.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	41.8%	15.5%	33.9%	43.3%	52.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	41.8%	15.5%	33.9%	43.3%	52.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	41.8%	15.5%	33.9%	43.3%	52.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	36.7%	15.5%	33.9%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	36.7%	14.9%	33.9%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	36.7%	14.8%	33.9%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	36.7%	14.8%	33.9%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	36.7%	14.8%	33.1%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	36.7%	14.8%	33.1%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	36.7%	14.8%	33.1%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	43.3%	14.8%	33.1%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	43.3%	14.8%	33.1%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	43.3%	14.8%	33.1%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	43.3%	14.8%	33.1%	43.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	43.3%	14.8%	33.1%	38.0%	52.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	43.3%	17.4%	35.6%	38.0%	52.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	43.3%	17.4%	35.6%	38.0%	52.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	43.3%	17.4%	35.6%	38.0%	52.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	31.9%	17.4%	35.6%	38.0%	52.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	31.9%	17.4%	35.6%	38.0%	52.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	77.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	76.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	74.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	74.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	74.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗