KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

38%

36%

32%

17%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

EPSNO 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.90u · EPS −64.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	5.1%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	1.3%	40.6%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	10.9%	2.9%	3.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	28.5%	12.4%	10.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	27.7%	8.1%	2.9%	—	15.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	18.9%	35.9%	9.3%	—	6.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.2%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	35.3%	6.9%	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	12.3%	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	19.0%	13.6%	3.8%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	19.0%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	16.6%	9.4%	1.2%	—	7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	17.7%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	12.1%	9.0%	0.6%	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	11.0%	6.3%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	8.6%	8.2%	0.3%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.6%	8.3%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	7.7%	8.5%	0.1%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	6.3%	11.2%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	9.4%	0.3%	4.2%	3.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	7.4%	8.2%	0.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	8.0%	0.2%	0.0%	3.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.2%	6.8%	0.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	6.5%	4.6%	0.1%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	5.4%	4.0%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.5%	5.1%	0.1%	2.1%	1.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	5.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	2.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	2.8%	0.0%	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	77.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	76.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	74.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	74.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	74.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗