KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

91%

90%

89%

81%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.6¢Risks 44.80u

HRESNO 10.4¢Risks 5.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.20u · HRES −5.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:00+00:00	90.5%	97.5%	91.0%	82.5%	90.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	90.5%	97.5%	91.0%	82.5%	90.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	90.5%	97.5%	94.3%	82.5%	90.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	90.5%	97.5%	94.3%	82.5%	90.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	90.5%	97.5%	94.3%	82.5%	90.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	90.5%	97.5%	94.3%	82.5%	90.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	88.6%	97.5%	94.3%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	88.6%	97.5%	94.3%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	88.6%	97.5%	94.3%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	88.6%	97.5%	94.3%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	88.6%	98.1%	90.1%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	88.7%	98.1%	90.1%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	88.7%	98.1%	90.1%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	88.7%	98.1%	90.1%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	88.7%	98.1%	90.1%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	88.7%	98.1%	90.1%	81.1%	91.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	88.7%	98.1%	90.1%	81.1%	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	76.1°F	2.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	91%	78.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	75.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	76.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗