KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

91%

90%

89%

81%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.6¢Risks 44.80u

HRESNO 10.4¢Risks 5.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.20u · HRES −5.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	87.5%	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	55.2%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	39.3%	62.6%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	82.9%	13.7%	18.4%	—	73.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	92.9%	31.0%	46.4%	—	63.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	76.1%	46.9%	44.7%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	84.6%	72.6%	46.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	16.8%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	87.5%	70.7%	39.3%	—	67.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	70.4%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	81.6%	74.5%	32.2%	—	62.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	83.4%	75.0%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	80.4%	77.7%	46.3%	—	75.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	84.1%	74.7%	—	—	74.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	77.5%	78.2%	42.3%	—	75.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	81.0%	81.0%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	86.6%	84.3%	41.8%	0.4%	74.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	89.9%	83.7%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	91.9%	79.4%	51.1%	—	81.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	91.3%	80.2%	0.0%	—	74.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	91.5%	73.0%	55.8%	0.1%	70.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	91.3%	67.5%	45.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	92.5%	68.0%	53.7%	84.1%	80.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	75.2%	77.2%	50.0%	—	70.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	89.9%	78.0%	39.4%	85.9%	73.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	91.9%	86.8%	54.2%	—	80.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	94.9%	89.8%	76.6%	94.5%	90.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	93.0%	63.3%	—	78.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	76.1°F	2.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	91%	78.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	75.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	76.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗