KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

83%

78%

77%

68%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 80.8¢Risks 80.80u

ICONNO 19.2¢Risks 19.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +19.20u · ICON −19.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	74.2%	66.4%	76.0%	60.2%	77.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	74.2%	66.4%	76.0%	60.2%	77.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	74.2%	66.4%	81.6%	60.2%	77.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	74.2%	66.4%	81.6%	60.2%	77.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	74.2%	66.4%	81.6%	60.2%	77.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	81.6%	72.2%	83.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	81.6%	72.2%	83.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	81.6%	72.2%	83.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	81.6%	72.2%	83.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	81.6%	72.2%	83.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	80.3%	72.2%	83.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	79.0%	88.2%	80.3%	72.2%	83.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	79.0%	88.2%	80.3%	72.2%	83.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	81.7%	88.2%	80.3%	72.2%	83.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	81.7%	88.2%	80.3%	72.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	79.0%	90.9%	78.9%	70.4%	85.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	79.0%	90.9%	75.2%	70.4%	85.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	79.0%	90.9%	75.2%	70.4%	85.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	79.0%	90.9%	75.2%	70.4%	85.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	78.4%	90.9%	75.2%	70.4%	78.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	78.4%	90.9%	75.2%	70.4%	78.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	78.4%	90.9%	75.2%	70.4%	78.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	78.4%	90.9%	75.2%	70.4%	78.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	78.4%	90.9%	75.2%	70.4%	78.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	78.4%	85.7%	73.2%	70.4%	78.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	78.4%	85.7%	73.2%	70.4%	78.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	78.4%	85.7%	73.2%	70.4%	78.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	81.4%	85.7%	73.2%	69.8%	78.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	81.5%	85.7%	73.2%	69.8%	78.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	84.2%	88.6%	78.2%	78.8%	75.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	84.2%	88.6%	79.8%	78.8%	75.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	84.2%	88.6%	79.8%	78.8%	75.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	84.2%	88.6%	79.8%	78.8%	75.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00	85.9%	88.6%	79.8%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	85.9%	88.6%	79.8%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00	85.9%	88.6%	79.8%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	85.9%	88.6%	79.8%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	85.9%	88.6%	79.8%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	85.9%	94.4%	77.1%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	85.9%	94.4%	77.1%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	85.9%	94.4%	77.1%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	83.1%	94.4%	77.1%	78.3%	67.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	83.1%	94.1%	77.1%	78.3%	67.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	77.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	76.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	74.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗