KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

83%

78%

77%

68%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 80.8¢Risks 80.80u

ICONNO 19.2¢Risks 19.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +19.20u · ICON −19.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	79.8%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	27.1%	49.3%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	72.5%	7.4%	10.5%	—	61.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	86.5%	19.4%	32.3%	—	49.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	62.7%	32.3%	30.3%	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	73.2%	57.9%	30.9%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	8.5%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	76.8%	55.0%	24.5%	—	51.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	54.3%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	67.8%	58.7%	18.4%	—	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	69.8%	58.9%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	65.3%	61.8%	28.9%	—	59.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	69.9%	57.5%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	60.6%	61.5%	24.7%	—	57.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	64.7%	64.7%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	72.4%	68.8%	23.5%	0.1%	56.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	77.2%	67.4%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	80.2%	60.8%	30.1%	—	62.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	78.6%	61.1%	0.0%	—	53.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	78.5%	51.2%	33.1%	0.0%	47.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	77.5%	44.0%	23.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	79.2%	43.8%	29.8%	64.6%	59.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	51.3%	53.9%	25.9%	—	46.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	72.7%	54.0%	17.3%	65.7%	48.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	75.8%	66.2%	27.6%	—	56.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	81.8%	70.7%	50.0%	80.9%	72.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	76.4%	33.8%	—	51.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	77.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	76.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	74.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗