KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

51%

41%

38%

15%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.5¢Risks 35.55u

ICONNO 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.45u · ICON −64.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:42+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	69.5%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	78.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	69.5%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	78.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	69.5%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	78.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	69.5%	47.8%	62.6%	48.1%	78.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	69.5%	47.8%	62.6%	29.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	69.5%	24.5%	51.7%	29.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	69.5%	24.5%	51.7%	29.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	69.5%	24.5%	51.7%	29.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	57.5%	24.5%	51.7%	29.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	58.1%	24.7%	51.7%	29.7%	78.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	49.0%	54.8%	29.2%	49.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	49.0%	52.3%	29.2%	49.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:55+00:00	49.0%	52.3%	29.2%	49.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	49.0%	52.3%	28.1%	49.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	49.0%	52.3%	28.1%	49.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	49.0%	52.3%	28.1%	49.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	45.1%	52.3%	28.1%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	45.1%	52.3%	28.1%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	45.1%	52.3%	28.1%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	45.1%	52.3%	28.1%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	45.1%	52.3%	28.1%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	45.1%	45.4%	24.9%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	45.1%	45.4%	24.9%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	45.1%	45.4%	24.9%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	48.0%	45.4%	24.9%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	48.0%	45.4%	24.9%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	48.0%	45.4%	24.9%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	48.0%	45.4%	24.9%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	48.0%	45.4%	24.9%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	48.0%	45.4%	36.1%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	48.0%	45.4%	36.1%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	48.0%	45.4%	36.1%	33.0%	32.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	52.0%	45.4%	36.1%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	52.0%	45.4%	36.1%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	52.0%	45.4%	36.1%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	52.0%	45.4%	36.1%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	52.0%	45.4%	36.1%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	52.0%	43.5%	31.5%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	52.0%	43.5%	31.5%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	52.0%	43.5%	31.5%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	45.0%	43.5%	31.5%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	44.9%	43.5%	31.5%	44.6%	23.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	31.5%	44.6%	23.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	31.5%	44.6%	23.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	31.5%	44.6%	23.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	25.7%	44.6%	23.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	25.7%	44.6%	23.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	25.7%	44.6%	23.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	47.0%	42.4%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	47.0%	42.4%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	47.0%	42.4%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	47.0%	42.4%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:12+00:00	47.0%	42.4%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	47.0%	41.3%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	47.0%	41.3%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	47.0%	41.3%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	52.0%	41.3%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	52.0%	41.3%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	52.0%	41.3%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	52.0%	41.3%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	52.0%	41.3%	25.7%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	52.0%	41.3%	51.4%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	52.0%	41.3%	51.4%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	52.0%	41.3%	51.4%	38.3%	16.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	56.5%	41.3%	51.4%	38.3%	14.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	56.5%	41.3%	51.4%	38.3%	14.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	56.5%	41.3%	51.4%	38.3%	14.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	56.5%	41.3%	51.4%	38.3%	14.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	76.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	75.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗