KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

51%

41%

38%

15%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.5¢Risks 35.55u

ICONNO 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.45u · ICON −64.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	58.1%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	19.8%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	9.9%	24.4%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	45.8%	1.6%	2.5%	—	33.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	64.3%	5.5%	11.7%	—	22.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	33.0%	11.0%	10.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	42.9%	27.4%	9.7%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	1.4%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	45.8%	23.8%	6.3%	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	22.6%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	33.8%	25.5%	3.8%	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	35.1%	24.9%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	29.7%	26.6%	7.0%	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	33.5%	22.4%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	24.0%	24.7%	4.9%	—	21.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	26.5%	26.5%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	33.0%	29.4%	4.0%	0.0%	19.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	37.5%	27.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	40.3%	20.6%	5.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	36.7%	19.8%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	35.2%	12.7%	5.4%	0.0%	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	32.5%	8.7%	2.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	33.1%	8.0%	3.7%	19.1%	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	10.3%	11.5%	2.6%	—	8.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	23.0%	10.7%	1.1%	17.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	24.2%	16.4%	2.3%	—	11.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	29.3%	18.2%	7.3%	28.0%	19.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	21.3%	2.7%	—	7.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	76.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	75.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗