KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

50%

39%

30%

19%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.2¢Risks 36.15u

EPSNO 63.8¢Risks 63.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.85u · EPS −63.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:15+00:00	52.8%	20.6%	34.0%	27.4%	26.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	52.8%	20.6%	34.0%	27.4%	26.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	52.8%	20.6%	34.0%	27.4%	26.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	52.8%	20.6%	34.0%	27.4%	26.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	52.8%	16.5%	38.9%	27.4%	26.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	52.8%	16.5%	38.9%	27.4%	26.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	52.8%	16.5%	38.9%	27.4%	26.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	52.8%	16.5%	38.9%	27.4%	26.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	47.2%	16.5%	38.9%	27.4%	27.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	47.2%	15.9%	38.9%	27.4%	27.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	47.2%	15.9%	38.9%	27.4%	27.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	47.2%	15.9%	38.9%	27.4%	27.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	47.2%	15.9%	36.6%	27.4%	27.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	47.2%	15.9%	36.6%	27.4%	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	47.2%	15.9%	36.6%	27.4%	27.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	53.5%	15.9%	36.6%	27.4%	53.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	53.5%	15.9%	36.6%	27.4%	53.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	53.5%	15.9%	36.6%	27.4%	53.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	53.5%	15.9%	36.6%	27.4%	53.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	53.5%	15.9%	36.6%	30.1%	53.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	53.5%	18.7%	38.9%	30.1%	53.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	53.5%	18.7%	38.9%	30.1%	53.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	53.5%	18.7%	38.9%	30.1%	53.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	50.0%	18.7%	38.9%	30.1%	53.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	50.0%	18.7%	38.9%	30.1%	53.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	54%	80.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	79.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	78.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	76.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	76.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗