KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

50%

39%

30%

19%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.2¢Risks 36.15u

EPSNO 63.8¢Risks 63.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.85u · EPS −63.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	39.5%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	9.0%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	3.6%	11.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	26.3%	0.4%	0.7%	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	42.7%	1.6%	4.1%	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	15.5%	3.6%	3.2%	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	21.8%	11.5%	2.9%	—	8.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.2%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	23.2%	9.0%	1.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	8.2%	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	14.1%	9.4%	0.7%	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	14.5%	8.8%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	11.0%	9.4%	1.5%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	12.7%	7.0%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	7.5%	7.9%	0.8%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	8.4%	8.4%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	11.3%	9.4%	0.6%	0.0%	4.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	13.2%	8.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	14.3%	5.0%	0.7%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	11.8%	4.5%	0.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	10.5%	2.2%	0.7%	0.0%	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	8.7%	1.2%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	8.5%	0.9%	0.3%	3.5%	2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.3%	1.5%	0.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	4.0%	1.2%	0.1%	2.6%	0.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	4.0%	2.1%	0.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	5.1%	2.3%	0.5%	4.7%	2.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.7%	0.1%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	54%	80.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	79.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	78.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	76.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	76.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗