KBNA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 21 · 06:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

63%

57%

49%

29%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.20u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.80u · ICON −52.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T06:39:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	81.8%	48.9%	69.9%	47.5%	54.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	81.8%	48.9%	69.9%	47.5%	54.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	81.8%	48.9%	69.9%	47.5%	54.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	63.2%	48.9%	69.9%	47.5%	54.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	63.2%	48.9%	69.8%	47.5%	55.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:11+00:00	63.2%	48.9%	69.8%	47.5%	55.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	63.2%	48.9%	69.8%	47.5%	55.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	63.2%	48.9%	69.8%	47.5%	55.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	63.2%	48.9%	67.0%	47.5%	55.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	63.2%	48.9%	67.0%	47.5%	55.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	63.2%	48.9%	67.0%	47.5%	55.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	67.8%	48.9%	67.0%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	67.8%	48.9%	67.0%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	67.8%	48.9%	67.0%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	67.8%	48.9%	67.0%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	67.8%	48.9%	67.0%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	67.8%	52.2%	64.8%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	67.8%	52.2%	64.8%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	67.8%	52.2%	64.8%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	67.2%	52.2%	64.8%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	67.2%	52.2%	64.8%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	67.2%	52.2%	64.8%	41.3%	66.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	67.9%	46.1%	65.0%	57.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	67.9%	46.1%	61.0%	57.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	67.9%	46.1%	61.0%	57.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	67.9%	46.1%	61.0%	57.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	66.4%	46.1%	61.0%	57.8%	57.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	66.4%	46.1%	61.0%	57.8%	57.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	66.4%	46.1%	61.0%	57.8%	57.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	66.4%	46.1%	61.0%	57.8%	57.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	66.4%	46.1%	61.0%	57.8%	57.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	66.4%	60.6%	65.1%	57.8%	57.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	66.4%	60.6%	65.1%	57.8%	57.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	66.4%	60.6%	65.1%	57.8%	57.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	69.3%	60.6%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	69.3%	60.6%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	63.3%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	63.3%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	63.3%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	70.0%	60.2%	63.3%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	70.0%	60.2%	63.3%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	70.0%	60.2%	63.3%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	70.0%	60.2%	63.3%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	70.0%	60.2%	63.3%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	70.0%	65.8%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	70.0%	65.8%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	70.0%	65.8%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	71.4%	65.8%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	71.4%	65.8%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	71.4%	65.8%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	71.4%	65.8%	65.1%	56.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	63.6%	76.6%	66.6%	58.7%	48.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	63.6%	76.6%	66.6%	58.7%	48.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	63.6%	76.6%	64.6%	58.7%	48.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	63.6%	76.6%	64.6%	58.7%	48.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	63.6%	76.6%	64.6%	58.7%	48.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	63.6%	76.6%	64.6%	58.7%	48.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	61.1%	76.6%	64.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	61.1%	76.6%	64.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	61.1%	76.6%	64.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	61.1%	76.6%	64.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	61.1%	71.5%	62.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	61.1%	71.5%	62.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	61.1%	71.5%	62.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	61.1%	71.5%	62.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	59.5%	71.5%	62.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	59.5%	71.5%	62.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	59.5%	71.5%	62.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	59.5%	71.5%	62.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	59.5%	71.5%	66.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	59.5%	71.5%	66.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	59.5%	71.5%	66.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	59.5%	71.5%	66.6%	50.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	61.0%	71.5%	66.6%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	61.0%	71.5%	66.6%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	61.0%	71.5%	66.6%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	61.0%	71.5%	66.6%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	61.0%	68.0%	59.4%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	61.0%	68.0%	59.4%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	61.0%	68.0%	59.4%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	61.0%	68.0%	59.4%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	58.3%	67.4%	59.4%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	58.3%	67.4%	59.4%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	58.3%	63.8%	59.4%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:55+00:00	58.3%	63.8%	59.4%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	58.3%	63.8%	54.7%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	58.3%	63.8%	54.7%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	58.3%	63.8%	54.7%	52.7%	51.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	59.3%	63.8%	54.7%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	59.3%	63.8%	54.7%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	59.3%	63.8%	54.7%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	59.3%	63.8%	54.7%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	59.3%	63.8%	54.7%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	50.0%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	50.0%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	50.0%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	50.0%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	50.0%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	50.0%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	50.0%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	50.0%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	62.8%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	62.8%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	59.3%	57.6%	62.8%	42.0%	45.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	63.5%	57.6%	62.8%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	63.5%	57.6%	62.8%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	63.5%	57.6%	62.8%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	63.5%	57.6%	62.8%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	63.5%	57.6%	62.8%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	63.5%	59.4%	57.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	63.5%	59.4%	57.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	63.5%	59.4%	57.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	55.9%	59.4%	57.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	55.9%	59.4%	57.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	55.9%	58.3%	57.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	55.9%	58.3%	57.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	55.9%	58.3%	57.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	55.9%	58.3%	48.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	55.9%	58.3%	48.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	55.9%	58.3%	48.7%	57.7%	42.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	59.8%	58.3%	48.7%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	59.8%	58.3%	48.7%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	59.8%	58.3%	48.7%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	59.8%	58.3%	48.7%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:13+00:00	59.8%	58.3%	48.7%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	59.8%	58.3%	46.1%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	59.8%	58.3%	46.1%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	59.8%	58.3%	46.1%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	64.5%	58.3%	46.1%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	64.5%	58.3%	46.1%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	64.5%	58.3%	46.1%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	64.5%	58.3%	46.1%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	64.5%	58.3%	46.1%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	64.5%	58.3%	69.7%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	64.5%	58.3%	69.7%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	64.5%	58.3%	69.7%	50.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	67.7%	58.3%	69.7%	50.0%	28.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	67.7%	58.3%	69.7%	50.0%	28.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	67.7%	58.3%	69.7%	50.0%	28.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	67.7%	58.3%	69.7%	50.0%	28.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	67.7%	61.1%	62.1%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	67.7%	61.1%	62.1%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	67.7%	61.1%	62.1%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	67.7%	61.1%	62.1%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	67.7%	61.1%	62.1%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	67.7%	61.1%	62.1%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T15:31:44+00:00	67.7%	63.3%	62.1%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00	67.7%	63.3%	62.1%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T17:03:17+00:00	57.1%	63.3%	45.9%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T17:48:37+00:00	57.1%	63.3%	45.9%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T18:33:45+00:00	57.1%	63.3%	45.9%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T19:18:53+00:00	57.1%	63.3%	45.9%	60.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T20:04:08+00:00	57.1%	63.3%	45.9%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T20:49:24+00:00	57.1%	63.3%	45.9%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T21:34:32+00:00	57.1%	63.3%	45.9%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T22:19:39+00:00	57.1%	63.3%	45.9%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T23:04:45+00:00	61.0%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T23:50:02+00:00	61.0%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-21T00:35:13+00:00	61.0%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-21T01:20:45+00:00	61.0%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-21T02:06:12+00:00	61.0%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-21T02:51:40+00:00	61.0%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-21T03:36:54+00:00	61.0%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-21T04:22:31+00:00	61.0%	63.3%	48.6%	59.3%	28.6%
2026-10-21T05:09:03+00:00	65.8%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-21T05:54:15+00:00	65.8%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%
2026-10-21T06:39:25+00:00	65.8%	63.3%	48.6%	57.5%	28.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	78.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	77.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	77.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	76.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	76.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	74.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗