KBNA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 21 · 06:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

63%

57%

49%

29%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.20u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.80u · ICON −52.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	33.0%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	6.3%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	28.8%	38.7%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	46.5%	6.5%	3.8%	—	26.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	69.6%	30.4%	15.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	67.0%	35.8%	18.9%	—	35.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	38.2%	35.9%	8.4%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	1.8%	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	37.7%	37.7%	9.7%	—	41.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	18.4%	35.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	33.8%	34.6%	6.8%	—	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	46.4%	37.6%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	44.5%	41.8%	11.9%	—	32.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	45.3%	43.4%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	44.2%	34.8%	10.7%	—	32.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	36.3%	30.8%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	37.8%	24.3%	9.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	43.7%	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	45.6%	26.4%	7.7%	—	33.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	40.0%	27.6%	0.0%	—	19.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	39.6%	23.3%	5.7%	0.0%	23.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	40.5%	28.3%	4.3%	—	25.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	40.1%	28.7%	13.0%	23.6%	35.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	30.2%	8.7%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	39.4%	27.3%	6.5%	0.0%	27.3%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	47.2%	26.5%	6.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	68.2%	28.0%	10.8%	30.5%	41.4%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	59.0%	29.8%	2.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	57.9%	36.1%	3.4%	31.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	78.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	77.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	77.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	76.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	76.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	74.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗