KBNA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

72%

61%

57%

55%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.8¢Risks 68.75u

HRESNO 31.2¢Risks 31.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.25u · HRES −31.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	59.6%	56.0%	73.7%	54.1%	62.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	59.6%	56.0%	73.7%	54.1%	62.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	59.6%	56.0%	73.7%	54.1%	62.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	59.6%	56.0%	71.2%	54.1%	62.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	59.6%	56.0%	71.2%	54.1%	62.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	59.6%	56.0%	71.2%	54.1%	62.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	61.9%	56.0%	71.2%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	61.9%	56.0%	71.2%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	61.9%	56.0%	71.2%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	61.9%	56.0%	71.2%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00	61.9%	56.0%	71.2%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	61.9%	54.8%	74.4%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	61.9%	54.8%	74.4%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	61.9%	54.8%	74.4%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	65.7%	54.8%	74.4%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	65.7%	54.8%	74.4%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	65.7%	54.8%	74.4%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	65.7%	54.8%	74.4%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	65.7%	54.8%	74.4%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	65.7%	54.8%	79.6%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	65.7%	54.8%	79.6%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	65.7%	54.8%	79.6%	41.1%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	71.5%	54.8%	79.6%	41.1%	57.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	71.5%	54.8%	79.6%	41.1%	57.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	71.5%	54.8%	79.6%	41.1%	57.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	71.5%	54.8%	79.6%	41.1%	57.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	71.5%	60.9%	82.7%	54.8%	57.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	71.5%	60.9%	82.7%	54.8%	57.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	71.5%	60.9%	82.7%	54.8%	57.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	71.5%	60.9%	82.7%	54.8%	57.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	71.5%	60.9%	82.7%	54.8%	57.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	77.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗