KBNA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

72%

61%

57%

55%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.8¢Risks 68.75u

HRESNO 31.2¢Risks 31.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.25u · HRES −31.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	62.8%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	2.0%	58.7%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	24.1%	65.1%	3.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	47.1%	47.8%	36.4%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	49.2%	47.7%	15.5%	—	29.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	44.4%	40.5%	14.9%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	1.9%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	33.0%	44.2%	12.0%	—	21.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	31.1%	41.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	43.0%	41.3%	14.1%	39.6%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	47.3%	—	—	28.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	77.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗