KBNA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

56%

52%

47%

44%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

EPSNO 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.45u · EPS −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	59.5%	41.3%	65.8%	44.0%	62.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	59.5%	38.6%	65.8%	44.0%	62.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	59.5%	38.6%	65.8%	44.0%	62.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	59.5%	38.6%	64.2%	44.0%	62.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	59.5%	38.6%	64.2%	44.0%	62.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	59.5%	38.6%	64.2%	44.0%	62.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	55.1%	38.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	55.1%	38.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	55.1%	38.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	55.1%	38.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	55.1%	38.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	55.1%	33.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	55.1%	33.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	55.1%	33.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	55.9%	33.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	55.9%	33.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	55.9%	33.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	55.9%	33.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00	55.9%	33.6%	64.2%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	55.9%	33.6%	65.0%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	55.9%	33.6%	65.0%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	55.9%	33.6%	65.0%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	56.4%	33.6%	65.0%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	56.4%	33.6%	65.0%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	56.4%	33.6%	65.0%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	56.4%	33.6%	65.0%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	56.4%	33.6%	65.0%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	56.4%	44.0%	65.1%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	56.4%	44.0%	65.1%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	56.4%	44.0%	65.1%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	51.6%	44.0%	65.1%	47.2%	56.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	51.6%	44.0%	65.1%	47.2%	56.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	79.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	78.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	77.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	77.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗