KBNA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

56%

52%

47%

44%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

EPSNO 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.45u · EPS −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	42.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	56.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	1.3%	52.0%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	18.9%	58.4%	2.0%	—	27.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	39.9%	40.6%	29.7%	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	41.7%	40.2%	11.4%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	36.7%	33.0%	10.8%	—	26.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	1.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	25.8%	36.1%	8.3%	—	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	23.9%	33.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	34.6%	33.0%	9.7%	31.4%	29.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	38.5%	—	—	21.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	79.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	78.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	77.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	77.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗