KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

58%

57%

44%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

HRESNO 41.6¢Risks 41.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.65u · HRES −41.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	42.2%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	4.0%	39.3%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	39.6%	40.3%	6.0%	—	28.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	36.4%	15.6%	5.5%	—	30.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	24.5%	30.3%	6.0%	—	22.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	37.5%	35.2%	7.2%	40.5%	33.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	42.7%	—	—	29.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	79.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	77.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	77.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗