KBNA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

52%

51%

27%

15%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.9¢Risks 35.95u

HRESNO 64.1¢Risks 64.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.05u · HRES −64.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	47.9%	29.9%	57.2%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	47.9%	29.9%	57.2%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	47.9%	29.9%	57.2%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	47.9%	29.9%	57.2%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	47.9%	29.9%	57.2%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	47.9%	29.3%	57.8%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	47.9%	29.3%	57.8%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	47.9%	29.3%	57.8%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	45.8%	29.3%	57.8%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	45.8%	29.3%	57.8%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	45.8%	28.2%	57.8%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	45.8%	28.2%	57.8%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	45.8%	28.2%	57.8%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	45.8%	28.2%	54.7%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	45.8%	28.2%	54.7%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	45.8%	28.2%	54.7%	30.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	48.6%	28.2%	54.7%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	48.6%	28.2%	54.7%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	48.6%	28.2%	54.7%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	48.6%	28.2%	54.7%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00	48.6%	28.2%	54.7%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	48.6%	27.2%	57.0%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	48.6%	27.2%	57.0%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	48.6%	27.2%	57.0%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	51.4%	27.2%	57.0%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	51.4%	27.2%	57.0%	14.9%	52.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	51.4%	27.2%	57.0%	14.9%	52.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	79.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	79.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	78.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	76.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	71.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗