KBNA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

52%

51%

27%

15%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.9¢Risks 35.95u

HRESNO 64.1¢Risks 64.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.05u · HRES −64.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	31.9%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	8.1%	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	4.5%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	6.4%	12.4%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	24.1%	12.6%	1.7%	—	16.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	25.4%	27.9%	4.9%	23.7%	24.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	79.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	79.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	78.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	76.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	71.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗