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KBNA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
48%
ICON
44%
AIFS
44%
HRES
26%
EPS
18%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 33.2¢Risks 33.25u
VS
EPSNO 66.8¢Risks 66.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +66.75u · EPS −66.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00AIFS Single: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:0044.5%18.2%49.2%11.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0044.5%18.2%49.2%11.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0044.5%18.2%49.2%11.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0044.5%18.2%49.2%11.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0044.5%18.2%49.2%11.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0044.1%18.2%49.2%11.6%44.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0044.1%18.2%49.2%11.6%44.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0044.1%18.2%49.2%11.6%44.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0044.1%18.2%49.2%11.6%44.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:0044.1%18.2%48.3%25.7%44.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0044.1%18.2%48.3%25.7%44.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0044.1%18.2%48.3%25.7%44.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0044.1%18.2%48.3%25.7%44.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%79.3°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON44%78.5°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single44%78.7°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES26%75.2°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend23%77.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%76.5°F3.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗