KBNA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

44%

44%

26%

18%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 33.2¢Risks 33.25u

EPSNO 66.8¢Risks 66.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +66.75u · EPS −66.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	26.7%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	5.9%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	3.1%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	4.5%	9.3%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	18.9%	9.3%	1.1%	—	12.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	19.9%	22.1%	3.3%	18.4%	18.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	20.5%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	79.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	78.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	78.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	75.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	76.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗