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KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 01:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
WN2
83%
EPS
70%
HRES
66%
ICON
63%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 76.3¢Risks 76.30u
VS
ICONNO 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.70u · ICON −23.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-09-25T18:08:59+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-25T18:08:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-25T18:08:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-09-25T18:08:59+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00IFS HRES: 65.5% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-09-25T18:08:59+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00ICON: 63.0% · 2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00ICON: 63.0% · 2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00ICON: 63.0% · 2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00ICON: 63.0% · 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:0009-25 18:0809-25 21:5509-26 01:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-25T18:08:59+00:0088.3%69.6%80.7%60.2%62.1%
2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:0088.3%69.6%80.7%60.2%62.1%
2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:0089.2%69.6%80.7%65.5%62.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:0089.2%69.6%80.7%65.5%62.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:0089.2%69.6%80.7%65.5%62.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:0089.2%69.6%80.7%65.5%62.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:0089.2%69.6%80.7%65.5%62.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:0089.2%69.6%82.9%65.5%63.0%
2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:0089.2%69.6%82.9%65.5%63.0%
2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:0089.2%69.6%82.9%65.5%63.0%
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:0089.6%69.6%82.9%65.5%63.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%78.0°F4.4°F2026-09-25 18:000.0108
WeatherNext 283%76.0°F3.7°F2026-09-25 12:000.0292
IFS Ensemble70%74.9°F4.7°F2026-09-25 00:000.0924
IFS HRES66%74.3°F4.5°F2026-09-25 12:000.1190
ICON63%73.8°F3.9°F2026-09-25 12:000.1369
NWS forecast55%73.0°F3.9°F2026-09-25 17:000.2016
National Blend46%72.0°F4.4°F2026-09-25 06:000.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗