KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 01:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

83%

70%

66%

63%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

ICONNO 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.70u · ICON −23.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	56.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	6.2%	61.3%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	25.7%	6.5%	0.4%	—	52.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	82.5%	10.6%	82.5%	—	61.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	89.7%	73.6%	69.1%	—	45.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	85.1%	49.2%	24.8%	—	34.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	8.0%	55.0%	45.8%	—	44.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.1%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	13.6%	14.6%	77.2%	—	41.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	34.2%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	53.7%	33.0%	76.3%	—	59.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	38.8%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	72.9%	51.0%	82.3%	—	79.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	58.9%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	58.2%	56.1%	69.7%	—	81.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	60.5%	67.4%	—	—	83.1%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	57.6%	76.2%	80.2%	—	77.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	43.3%	72.4%	0.0%	—	74.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	36.3%	69.0%	80.1%	—	73.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	19.9%	69.6%	75.6%	—	73.7%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	42.6%	70.2%	62.3%	48.8%	71.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	47.4%	62.7%	76.2%	—	67.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	44.6%	66.9%	80.9%	0.0%	64.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	37.7%	70.0%	75.8%	—	56.9%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	31.8%	70.7%	69.5%	38.6%	65.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	38.1%	78.7%	66.2%	—	63.3%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	36.1%	75.0%	69.7%	34.6%	60.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	33.9%	70.5%	64.5%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 18:00	0.0108
WeatherNext 2	83%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0292
IFS Ensemble	70%	74.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 00:00	0.0924
IFS HRES	66%	74.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.1190
ICON	63%	73.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.1369
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 17:00	0.2016
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗