KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

36%

30%

30%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.2¢Risks 35.25u

ICONNO 64.8¢Risks 64.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.75u · ICON −64.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00	63.1%	34.3%	33.5%	32.2%	14.7%
2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00	63.1%	35.8%	33.5%	32.2%	14.7%
2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00	63.1%	35.8%	33.5%	32.2%	14.7%
2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00	63.1%	35.8%	33.5%	32.2%	5.6%
2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00	63.1%	35.8%	33.5%	32.2%	5.6%
2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00	63.1%	35.8%	33.5%	32.2%	5.6%
2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00	63.1%	35.8%	33.5%	32.2%	5.6%
2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00	66.7%	35.8%	33.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00	66.7%	35.8%	33.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00	66.7%	35.8%	33.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00	66.7%	35.8%	33.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00	66.7%	35.8%	33.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00	66.7%	35.8%	30.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00	66.7%	35.8%	30.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00	66.7%	35.8%	30.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00	64.9%	35.8%	30.5%	30.5%	5.6%
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00	64.9%	35.8%	30.5%	30.5%	5.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	78.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 18:00	0.4212
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 14:00	0.3114
National Blend	38%	75.9°F	2.0°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.1475
IFS Ensemble	36%	74.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.1282
IFS HRES	30%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0930
WeatherNext 2	30%	74.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0930
ICON	6%	70.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0031

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗