KBOI / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

36%

30%

30%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.2¢Risks 35.25u

ICONNO 64.8¢Risks 64.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.75u · ICON −64.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	9.9%	—	—	31.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	1.3%	34.8%	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	8.7%	1.3%	0.0%	—	26.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	58.0%	2.4%	58.0%	—	33.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	69.1%	44.7%	39.4%	—	18.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	59.5%	20.6%	6.9%	—	11.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	1.2%	23.8%	17.3%	—	16.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	0.0%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	2.4%	2.7%	44.8%	—	13.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	9.6%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	20.3%	8.6%	41.8%	—	24.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	10.8%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	35.7%	17.1%	48.0%	—	44.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	21.9%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	20.4%	19.0%	30.3%	—	43.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	21.3%	27.1%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	18.3%	35.1%	40.3%	—	37.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	9.7%	29.6%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	6.5%	25.1%	37.4%	—	28.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	24.4%	30.4%	—	28.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	7.5%	23.6%	17.4%	10.0%	24.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	8.7%	16.6%	28.0%	—	20.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	7.0%	18.2%	31.9%	0.0%	16.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	4.3%	19.1%	24.2%	—	11.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	2.7%	18.2%	17.2%	4.0%	14.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	3.4%	23.6%	13.6%	—	12.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	2.6%	18.1%	14.2%	2.4%	9.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	1.9%	13.2%	9.9%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	78.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 18:00	0.4212
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 14:00	0.3114
National Blend	38%	75.9°F	2.0°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.1475
IFS Ensemble	36%	74.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.1282
IFS HRES	30%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0930
WeatherNext 2	30%	74.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0930
ICON	6%	70.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0031

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260928-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗