KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

90%

89%

87%

74%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

HRESNO 14.5¢Risks 14.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +14.45u · HRES −14.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T17:23:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T02:56:46+00:00	97.3%	53.5%	84.5%	70.6%	56.3%
2026-09-24T03:41:56+00:00	97.3%	53.5%	84.5%	70.6%	56.3%
2026-09-24T04:27:02+00:00	97.3%	53.5%	84.5%	70.6%	64.6%
2026-09-24T05:12:08+00:00	97.3%	53.5%	78.0%	70.6%	64.6%
2026-09-24T05:57:20+00:00	97.3%	53.5%	78.0%	70.6%	64.6%
2026-09-24T06:42:28+00:00	97.3%	53.5%	78.0%	70.6%	64.6%
2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00	97.6%	53.5%	78.0%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00	97.6%	53.5%	78.0%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00	97.6%	53.5%	78.0%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00	97.6%	53.5%	78.0%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00	97.6%	53.5%	78.0%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00	97.6%	65.8%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00	97.6%	65.8%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00	97.6%	65.8%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00	98.5%	65.8%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T14:16:43+00:00	98.5%	65.8%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T15:02:04+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	88.4%
2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	88.4%
2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	88.4%
2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	68.4%	88.4%
2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	83.6%	74.3%	88.4%
2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	88.4%
2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	88.4%
2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00	98.5%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	88.4%
2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00	97.3%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	88.4%
2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00	97.3%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	88.4%
2026-09-25T03:04:36+00:00	97.3%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	88.4%
2026-09-25T03:49:47+00:00	97.3%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	88.4%
2026-09-25T04:34:53+00:00	97.3%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T05:20:00+00:00	97.3%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T06:05:07+00:00	97.3%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T06:50:11+00:00	97.3%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T07:35:21+00:00	98.1%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T08:20:26+00:00	98.1%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T09:05:32+00:00	98.1%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T09:50:36+00:00	98.1%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T10:35:42+00:00	98.1%	66.4%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T11:20:49+00:00	98.1%	85.0%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T12:05:54+00:00	98.1%	85.0%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T12:51:00+00:00	98.1%	85.0%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T13:36:07+00:00	96.8%	85.0%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T14:23:08+00:00	96.8%	84.6%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T15:08:14+00:00	96.8%	86.9%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T15:53:19+00:00	96.8%	86.9%	86.8%	74.3%	87.3%
2026-09-25T16:38:25+00:00	96.8%	86.9%	86.8%	74.3%	89.7%
2026-09-25T17:23:33+00:00	96.8%	86.9%	89.3%	74.3%	89.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.0010
ICON	90%	76.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0106
WeatherNext 2	89%	75.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.0114
IFS Ensemble	87%	75.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	0.0172
IFS HRES	74%	74.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0660
National Blend	63%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.1354
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 02:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗