KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

90%

89%

87%

74%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

HRESNO 14.5¢Risks 14.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +14.45u · HRES −14.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	87.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	66.5%	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	26.2%	—	—	88.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	2.2%	43.3%	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	97.4%	77.0%	0.3%	—	83.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	97.9%	72.2%	46.4%	—	76.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	35.1%	89.7%	91.3%	—	74.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	50.0%	57.9%	93.6%	—	73.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	84.3%	92.3%	83.8%	—	79.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	10.3%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	81.6%	80.4%	93.2%	—	85.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	80.4%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	86.1%	91.4%	84.5%	—	92.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	79.0%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	78.2%	89.3%	91.4%	—	91.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	80.3%	86.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	74.9%	87.2%	87.2%	—	91.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	56.3%	88.9%	—	—	92.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	76.2%	91.5%	90.1%	—	92.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	76.0%	90.3%	0.0%	—	91.3%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	73.0%	92.0%	91.5%	—	90.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	71.7%	92.6%	93.0%	—	90.3%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	72.4%	92.5%	93.7%	55.0%	91.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	79.1%	94.0%	95.4%	—	94.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	77.0%	96.3%	94.7%	58.0%	94.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	77.9%	96.8%	96.0%	—	95.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	87.0%	96.0%	96.5%	75.5%	97.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	87.2%	98.2%	95.9%	—	95.9%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	81.9%	97.1%	94.3%	82.9%	94.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	85.9%	95.5%	93.2%	—	95.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.0010
ICON	90%	76.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0106
WeatherNext 2	89%	75.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.0114
IFS Ensemble	87%	75.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	0.0172
IFS HRES	74%	74.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0660
National Blend	63%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.1354
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 02:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗