KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 01:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

81%

80%

76%

70%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.8¢Risks 80.80u

HRESNO 19.2¢Risks 19.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.20u · HRES −19.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T02:49:27+00:00	98.0%	55.8%	66.8%	92.7%	91.0%
2026-09-23T03:34:41+00:00	98.0%	55.8%	66.8%	92.7%	91.0%
2026-09-23T04:19:46+00:00	98.0%	55.8%	66.8%	92.7%	91.0%
2026-09-23T05:04:59+00:00	98.0%	55.8%	66.8%	92.5%	96.3%
2026-09-23T05:50:07+00:00	98.0%	55.8%	66.8%	92.5%	96.3%
2026-09-23T06:35:12+00:00	98.0%	55.8%	66.8%	92.5%	96.3%
2026-09-23T07:20:20+00:00	98.0%	55.8%	66.8%	92.5%	96.3%
2026-09-23T08:05:59+00:00	99.0%	55.8%	66.8%	64.7%	96.3%
2026-09-23T08:51:14+00:00	99.0%	55.8%	66.8%	64.7%	96.3%
2026-09-23T09:36:18+00:00	99.0%	55.8%	66.8%	64.7%	96.3%
2026-09-23T10:21:22+00:00	99.0%	55.8%	66.8%	64.7%	96.3%
2026-09-23T11:06:35+00:00	99.0%	40.9%	74.0%	64.7%	96.3%
2026-09-23T11:51:41+00:00	99.0%	40.9%	74.0%	64.7%	96.3%
2026-09-23T12:36:46+00:00	99.0%	40.9%	74.0%	64.7%	96.3%
2026-09-23T13:21:51+00:00	97.2%	40.9%	74.0%	64.7%	96.3%
2026-09-23T14:09:09+00:00	97.2%	41.0%	73.9%	64.7%	96.1%
2026-09-23T14:54:24+00:00	97.2%	42.0%	73.9%	64.7%	96.1%
2026-09-23T15:39:33+00:00	97.2%	42.0%	73.9%	64.7%	96.1%
2026-09-23T16:24:42+00:00	97.2%	42.0%	73.9%	64.7%	44.8%
2026-09-23T17:09:52+00:00	97.2%	42.0%	73.9%	64.7%	44.8%
2026-09-23T17:54:57+00:00	97.2%	42.0%	73.9%	64.7%	44.8%
2026-09-23T18:40:03+00:00	97.2%	42.0%	73.9%	64.7%	44.8%
2026-09-23T19:25:15+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	73.9%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-23T20:10:21+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	73.9%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-23T20:55:27+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	73.9%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-23T21:40:32+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	73.9%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-23T22:25:39+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	73.9%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-23T23:10:45+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	71.7%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-23T23:55:50+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	71.7%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-24T00:40:57+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	71.7%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-24T01:26:08+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	71.7%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-24T02:11:14+00:00	94.0%	42.0%	71.7%	59.5%	44.8%
2026-09-25T18:09:00+00:00	92.3%	75.5%	76.9%	62.1%	80.1%
2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:00	92.3%	75.5%	76.9%	62.1%	80.1%
2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00	93.4%	75.5%	76.9%	69.7%	80.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00	93.4%	75.5%	76.9%	69.7%	80.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00	93.4%	75.5%	76.9%	69.7%	80.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00	93.4%	75.5%	76.9%	69.7%	80.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00	93.4%	75.5%	76.9%	69.7%	80.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00	93.4%	75.5%	80.6%	69.7%	80.1%
2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00	93.4%	75.5%	80.6%	69.7%	80.1%
2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00	93.4%	75.5%	80.6%	69.7%	80.1%
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00	91.9%	75.5%	80.6%	69.7%	80.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	79.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 18:00	0.0066
WeatherNext 2	81%	75.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0376
ICON	80%	76.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0396
IFS Ensemble	76%	75.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	0.0600
IFS HRES	70%	75.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0918
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 17:00	0.2070
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 23 · 02:49 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗