KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 01:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

81%

80%

76%

70%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.8¢Risks 80.80u

HRESNO 19.2¢Risks 19.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.20u · HRES −19.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	54.8%	—	—	86.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	—	88.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	16.8%	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	0.9%	30.6%	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	94.4%	65.1%	0.1%	—	73.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	95.2%	58.7%	32.3%	—	63.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	22.2%	81.1%	83.5%	—	60.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	34.5%	42.1%	86.9%	—	59.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	72.1%	84.3%	71.4%	—	66.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	4.5%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	67.8%	66.2%	85.4%	—	73.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	65.8%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	73.4%	81.6%	71.0%	—	82.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	63.0%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	61.5%	77.5%	81.0%	—	80.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	63.7%	72.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	56.1%	73.2%	73.2%	—	79.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	35.5%	75.5%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	56.5%	79.4%	77.0%	—	81.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	55.6%	76.9%	0.0%	—	78.6%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	51.2%	79.3%	78.5%	—	75.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	48.8%	80.1%	80.9%	—	75.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	48.8%	79.2%	81.8%	30.9%	77.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	56.4%	81.8%	85.0%	—	81.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	52.7%	86.6%	82.7%	31.9%	81.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	52.8%	87.5%	85.3%	—	82.7%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	65.5%	84.6%	86.2%	48.5%	87.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	64.8%	90.8%	83.8%	—	83.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	54.7%	86.6%	78.6%	56.3%	79.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	59.8%	80.8%	74.6%	—	79.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	79.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 18:00	0.0066
WeatherNext 2	81%	75.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0376
ICON	80%	76.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0396
IFS Ensemble	76%	75.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	0.0600
IFS HRES	70%	75.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-25 12:00	0.0918
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 17:00	0.2070
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 23 · 02:49 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗