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KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 22 · 10:14 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
95%
HRES
90%
WN2
62%
EPS
62%
ICON
13%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 54.2¢Risks 54.25u
VS
ICONNO 45.8¢Risks 45.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.75u · ICON −45.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.1% · 2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00AIFS Single: 95.1% · 2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00AIFS Single: 95.1% · 2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00AIFS Single: 95.1% · 2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00IFS HRES: 90.4% · 2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00IFS HRES: 90.4% · 2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00IFS HRES: 90.4% · 2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00IFS HRES: 90.4% · 2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:0009-22 07:5909-22 09:2909-22 10:14
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-22T07:59:28+00:0095.1%62.1%62.3%90.4%13.4%
2026-09-22T08:44:42+00:0095.1%62.1%62.3%90.4%13.4%
2026-09-22T09:29:48+00:0095.1%62.1%62.3%90.4%13.4%
2026-09-22T10:14:53+00:0095.1%62.1%62.3%90.4%13.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single95%82.7°F5.5°F2026-09-22 00:000.0024
IFS HRES90%81.7°F6.3°F2026-09-22 00:000.0092
WeatherNext 262%75.4°F6.0°F2026-09-17 12:000.1421
IFS Ensemble62%75.4°F6.2°F2026-09-21 00:000.1436
National Blend53%74.0°F7.6°F2026-09-22 00:000.2247
ICON13%62.7°F9.8°F2026-09-22 00:000.7500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 74°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗