KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 22 · 10:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

62%

62%

13%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

ICONNO 45.8¢Risks 45.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.75u · ICON −45.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	77.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	79.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	48.8%	—	—	82.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	13.0%	—	—	75.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	0.6%	24.9%	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	92.1%	58.4%	0.1%	—	67.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	93.1%	51.5%	26.0%	—	56.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	16.9%	75.5%	78.4%	—	53.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	27.4%	34.5%	82.1%	—	51.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	64.7%	78.7%	63.9%	—	58.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	2.8%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	59.6%	57.8%	79.8%	—	65.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	57.1%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	65.3%	74.9%	62.7%	—	76.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	53.8%	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	51.9%	69.6%	73.7%	—	72.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	54.0%	63.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	45.9%	64.1%	64.1%	—	71.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	26.2%	66.5%	—	—	74.7%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	45.6%	70.8%	67.9%	—	72.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	44.4%	67.5%	0.0%	—	69.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	39.6%	70.0%	69.0%	—	65.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	37.0%	70.7%	71.7%	—	65.3%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	36.5%	69.2%	72.4%	20.8%	66.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	43.6%	72.0%	76.2%	—	72.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	39.4%	78.0%	72.7%	21.0%	71.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	39.0%	78.9%	75.8%	—	72.4%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	51.4%	74.4%	76.6%	34.5%	78.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	72.8%	50.0%	82.8%	72.8%	—	72.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	39.1%	76.2%	65.4%	40.6%	66.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	43.4%	67.6%	59.8%	—	66.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	82.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.0024
IFS HRES	90%	81.7°F	6.3°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.0092
WeatherNext 2	62%	75.4°F	6.0°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.1421
IFS Ensemble	62%	75.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.1436
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	7.6°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.2247
ICON	13%	62.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	0.7500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 74°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗