KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 29 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

41%

30%

24%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

ICONNO 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.85u · ICON −60.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T06:37:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:20:02+00:00	77.5%	41.3%	40.4%	36.1%	22.9%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	77.5%	41.3%	40.4%	36.1%	22.9%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	77.5%	41.3%	40.4%	36.1%	14.1%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	77.5%	41.3%	41.4%	36.1%	14.1%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	77.5%	41.3%	41.4%	36.1%	14.1%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	77.5%	41.3%	41.4%	36.1%	14.1%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	74.9%	41.3%	41.4%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	74.9%	41.3%	41.4%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	74.9%	41.3%	41.4%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	74.9%	41.3%	41.4%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	74.9%	41.3%	41.4%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T11:37:22+00:00	74.9%	34.7%	45.5%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00	74.9%	34.7%	45.5%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T13:07:35+00:00	74.9%	34.7%	45.5%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T13:52:48+00:00	72.6%	34.7%	45.5%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	72.6%	34.7%	45.5%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	72.6%	32.7%	45.5%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	72.6%	32.7%	45.5%	38.5%	14.1%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	72.6%	32.7%	41.1%	38.5%	11.2%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	72.6%	32.7%	41.1%	38.5%	11.2%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	72.6%	32.7%	41.1%	38.5%	11.2%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	72.6%	32.7%	41.1%	38.5%	11.2%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	71.8%	32.7%	41.1%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	71.8%	32.7%	41.1%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	71.8%	32.7%	41.1%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	71.8%	32.7%	41.1%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	71.8%	32.7%	38.9%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	71.8%	32.7%	38.9%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	71.8%	32.7%	38.9%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	71.8%	32.7%	38.9%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	70.9%	32.7%	38.9%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	70.9%	32.7%	38.9%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00	70.9%	32.7%	38.9%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	70.9%	32.7%	38.9%	28.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T04:58:38+00:00	70.9%	32.7%	42.2%	28.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T05:43:49+00:00	70.9%	32.7%	42.2%	28.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T06:28:57+00:00	70.9%	32.7%	42.2%	28.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00	70.9%	32.7%	42.2%	28.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T08:00:03+00:00	73.1%	32.7%	42.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T08:45:30+00:00	73.1%	32.7%	42.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T09:30:35+00:00	73.1%	32.7%	42.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T10:15:41+00:00	73.1%	32.7%	42.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T11:00:57+00:00	73.1%	27.3%	44.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T11:46:09+00:00	73.1%	27.3%	44.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T12:31:15+00:00	73.1%	27.3%	44.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T13:16:23+00:00	73.1%	27.3%	44.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-28T14:01:31+00:00	74.0%	27.2%	44.2%	27.8%	6.3%
2026-09-29T04:21:42+00:00	71.5%	23.8%	34.1%	29.6%	6.8%
2026-09-29T05:06:58+00:00	71.5%	23.8%	40.8%	29.6%	6.8%
2026-09-29T05:52:05+00:00	71.5%	23.8%	40.8%	29.6%	6.8%
2026-09-29T06:37:12+00:00	71.5%	23.8%	40.8%	29.6%	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	78.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.5112
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	41%	75.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.1665
National Blend	40%	76.1°F	1.7°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.1640
IFS HRES	30%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.0876
IFS Ensemble	24%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.0566
ICON	7%	71.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0046

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 27 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗