KBOI / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 29 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

41%

30%

24%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

ICONNO 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.85u · ICON −60.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	31.3%	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	5.3%	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	0.1%	11.8%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	81.1%	37.6%	0.0%	—	46.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	82.5%	30.4%	11.7%	—	35.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	6.3%	54.6%	58.3%	—	30.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	11.5%	15.9%	62.5%	—	28.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	40.1%	56.6%	39.3%	—	33.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	0.5%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	33.8%	32.2%	57.0%	—	39.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	31.0%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	38.2%	49.1%	35.6%	—	50.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	26.9%	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	24.7%	41.3%	46.1%	—	45.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	25.7%	34.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	19.0%	34.0%	34.0%	—	41.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	7.6%	35.5%	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	17.6%	39.2%	36.1%	—	41.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	16.1%	34.6%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	12.7%	36.3%	35.2%	—	32.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	10.8%	35.9%	37.0%	—	30.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	10.0%	33.1%	36.5%	4.0%	30.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	12.8%	34.9%	39.8%	—	34.9%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	10.1%	40.7%	34.3%	3.5%	33.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	9.2%	40.3%	36.3%	—	32.5%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	14.6%	33.1%	35.8%	6.8%	38.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	12.8%	42.5%	29.8%	—	29.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	7.1%	31.7%	21.4%	7.7%	22.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	7.9%	21.6%	16.0%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	78.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.5112
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	41%	75.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.1665
National Blend	40%	76.1°F	1.7°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.1640
IFS HRES	30%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.0876
IFS Ensemble	24%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.0566
ICON	7%	71.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0046

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260929-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 27 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗