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KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 02:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
93%
AIFS
93%
WN2
86%
ICON
64%
EPS
59%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 75.8¢Risks 75.80u
VS
EPSNO 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.20u · EPS −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-09-24T15:02:04+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00AIFS Single: 92.6% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 92.6% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-09-24T15:02:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-09-24T15:02:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.7% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T15:02:04+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00IFS HRES: 75.1% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00ICON: 93.7% · 2026-09-24T15:02:04+00:00ICON: 93.7% · 2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00ICON: 93.7% · 2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00ICON: 93.7% · 2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:00ICON: 93.7% · 2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:00ICON: 93.7% · 2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00ICON: 64.1% · 2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:0009-24 15:0209-24 21:0309-25 02:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-24T15:02:04+00:0088.5%58.5%81.1%75.1%93.7%
2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:0088.5%58.6%81.1%75.1%93.7%
2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:0088.5%58.6%81.1%75.1%93.7%
2026-09-24T17:17:36+00:0088.5%58.6%81.7%75.1%93.7%
2026-09-24T18:02:41+00:0088.5%58.6%81.7%75.1%93.7%
2026-09-24T18:47:45+00:0088.5%58.6%81.7%75.1%93.7%
2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:0096.1%58.6%81.7%75.1%64.1%
2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:0096.1%58.6%81.7%75.1%64.1%
2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:0096.1%58.6%81.7%75.1%64.1%
2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:0096.1%58.6%81.7%75.1%64.1%
2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:0096.1%58.6%81.7%93.0%64.1%
2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:0096.1%58.6%86.5%93.0%64.1%
2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:0096.1%58.6%86.5%93.0%64.1%
2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:0096.1%58.6%86.5%93.0%64.1%
2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:0092.6%58.6%86.5%93.0%64.1%
2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:0092.6%58.6%86.5%93.0%64.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES93%82.3°F6.7°F2026-09-24 12:000.0049
AIFS Single93%80.2°F5.3°F2026-09-24 18:000.0055
WeatherNext 286%77.5°F4.5°F2026-09-24 12:000.0182
ICON64%75.0°F6.9°F2026-09-24 12:000.1289
IFS Ensemble59%73.7°F5.5°F2026-09-24 00:000.1714
National Blend57%74.0°F8.7°F2026-09-23 06:000.1858
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.8°F2026-09-24 14:000.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 24 · 15:02 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗