KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 02:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

93%

86%

64%

59%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

EPSNO 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.20u · EPS −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	85.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	87.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	9.3%	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	95.1%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	85.2%	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	43.9%	85.3%	—	—	75.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	73.1%	91.5%	0.1%	—	74.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	91.6%	60.8%	92.6%	—	80.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	45.4%	16.9%	93.5%	—	77.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	94.3%	49.2%	94.7%	—	82.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	66.2%	45.8%	83.2%	—	80.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	10.3%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	62.9%	85.4%	93.2%	—	88.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	48.2%	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	71.0%	96.1%	92.1%	—	86.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	61.2%	97.1%	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	58.7%	73.7%	67.0%	—	84.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	81.7%	70.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	60.2%	68.8%	73.2%	—	84.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	59.5%	75.5%	—	—	84.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	93.0%	56.5%	83.1%	95.8%	0.0%	86.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	59.0%	76.9%	0.0%	—	88.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	55.8%	84.7%	91.0%	65.9%	90.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	50.0%	88.0%	94.8%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	61.1%	90.5%	94.8%	0.0%	94.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	65.1%	94.0%	94.4%	—	96.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	73.9%	96.8%	96.5%	83.5%	95.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	85.3%	98.2%	98.0%	—	96.3%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	91.6%	99.2%	98.7%	92.7%	98.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	95.2%	99.7%	99.3%	—	98.7%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	92.9%	99.7%	99.0%	95.6%	98.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	95.9%	99.1%	99.0%	—	99.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	82.3°F	6.7°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0049
AIFS Single	93%	80.2°F	5.3°F	2026-09-24 18:00	0.0055
WeatherNext 2	86%	77.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0182
ICON	64%	75.0°F	6.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.1289
IFS Ensemble	59%	73.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.1714
National Blend	57%	74.0°F	8.7°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.1858
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 14:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 24 · 15:02 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗