KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

75%

72%

72%

54%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.2¢Risks 68.25u

EPSNO 31.8¢Risks 31.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.75u · EPS −31.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T08:05:59+00:00	90.8%	68.0%	64.3%	25.8%	58.9%
2026-09-23T08:51:14+00:00	90.8%	68.0%	64.3%	25.8%	58.9%
2026-09-23T09:36:18+00:00	90.8%	68.0%	64.3%	25.8%	58.9%
2026-09-23T10:21:22+00:00	90.8%	68.0%	64.3%	25.8%	58.9%
2026-09-23T11:06:35+00:00	90.8%	53.5%	69.1%	25.8%	58.9%
2026-09-23T11:51:41+00:00	90.8%	53.5%	69.1%	25.8%	58.9%
2026-09-23T12:36:46+00:00	90.8%	53.5%	69.1%	25.8%	58.9%
2026-09-23T13:21:51+00:00	86.3%	53.5%	69.1%	25.8%	58.9%
2026-09-23T14:09:09+00:00	86.4%	53.5%	69.0%	25.9%	58.5%
2026-09-23T14:54:24+00:00	86.4%	54.0%	69.0%	25.9%	58.5%
2026-09-23T15:39:33+00:00	86.4%	54.0%	69.0%	25.9%	58.5%
2026-09-23T16:24:42+00:00	86.4%	54.0%	69.0%	25.9%	74.6%
2026-09-23T17:09:52+00:00	86.4%	54.0%	71.9%	25.9%	74.6%
2026-09-23T17:54:57+00:00	86.4%	54.0%	71.9%	25.9%	74.6%
2026-09-23T18:40:03+00:00	86.4%	54.0%	71.9%	25.9%	74.6%
2026-09-23T19:25:15+00:00	89.3%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-23T20:10:21+00:00	89.3%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-23T20:55:27+00:00	89.3%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-23T21:40:32+00:00	89.3%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-23T22:25:39+00:00	89.3%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-23T23:10:45+00:00	89.3%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-23T23:55:50+00:00	89.3%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-24T00:40:57+00:00	89.3%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-24T01:26:08+00:00	82.5%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%
2026-09-24T02:11:14+00:00	82.5%	54.0%	71.9%	72.5%	74.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	78.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0306
ICON	75%	80.0°F	9.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0645
IFS HRES	72%	77.3°F	6.3°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0756
WeatherNext 2	72%	76.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0790
IFS Ensemble	54%	74.3°F	7.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.2116
National Blend	52%	74.0°F	8.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2256

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 74°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗