KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

75%

72%

72%

54%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.2¢Risks 68.25u

EPSNO 31.8¢Risks 31.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.75u · EPS −31.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	76.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	84.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	7.0%	—	—	79.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	93.3%	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	81.1%	—	—	71.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	37.4%	81.1%	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	67.0%	88.5%	0.0%	—	68.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	88.3%	53.6%	89.7%	—	75.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	38.0%	12.5%	90.7%	—	71.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	91.6%	41.3%	92.2%	—	76.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	58.3%	37.7%	77.5%	—	74.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	7.0%	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	54.4%	79.8%	89.9%	—	83.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	39.3%	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	62.7%	93.7%	88.1%	—	80.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	51.9%	95.2%	—	—	80.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	49.0%	65.2%	57.7%	—	78.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	74.3%	61.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	59.2%	64.1%	—	78.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	48.9%	66.5%	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	45.6%	75.3%	92.7%	0.0%	80.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	47.8%	67.5%	0.0%	—	81.7%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	76.7%	85.3%	54.6%	84.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	38.1%	80.9%	90.8%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	48.8%	84.1%	90.5%	0.0%	89.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	52.6%	89.1%	89.7%	—	92.3%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	61.9%	93.5%	93.0%	73.9%	91.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	75.8%	96.0%	95.7%	—	92.4%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	84.6%	97.9%	96.8%	86.2%	96.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	90.1%	99.2%	98.2%	—	96.8%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	85.8%	99.0%	97.4%	90.4%	96.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	90.8%	97.4%	97.2%	—	97.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	78.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	0.0306
ICON	75%	80.0°F	9.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0645
IFS HRES	72%	77.3°F	6.3°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0756
WeatherNext 2	72%	76.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	0.0790
IFS Ensemble	54%	74.3°F	7.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	0.2116
National Blend	52%	74.0°F	8.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2256

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 74°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗